I went to look with a lot of skepticism, knowing that lots of things could make a search engine "spike" on any given day, and that while Google's statistics would certainly be interesting, that I doubt I'd trust them for anything substantial in reporting.
But when I look at the ups and downs of the Google trend lines as compared with the ups and downs of the CDC trend lines, I'm flabbergasted. They match almost exactly, month after month, whether it's spiking upward or falling. That's amazing to me.
It makes some sense. The CDC numbers rely, in part, on doctors reporting patients in their offices who have a flu-like illness. The Google number rely on people searching for flu symptoms. It would follow that (a) people start feeling symptoms, then (b) search for information, then (c) get sicker and go to the doctor, where (d) it's reported, which ends up being a couple weeks later.
I'm a new believer in watching statisticians find new (and accurate) ways to use this information. I'll be interested to track the Google trends in my state and see if they are correct!
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All I can say, is Wow!
I went to look with a lot of skepticism, knowing that lots of things could make a search engine "spike" on any given day, and that while Google's statistics would certainly be interesting, that I doubt I'd trust them for anything substantial in reporting.
But when I look at the ups and downs of the Google trend lines as compared with the ups and downs of the CDC trend lines, I'm flabbergasted. They match almost exactly, month after month, whether it's spiking upward or falling. That's amazing to me.
It makes some sense. The CDC numbers rely, in part, on doctors reporting patients in their offices who have a flu-like illness. The Google number rely on people searching for flu symptoms. It would follow that (a) people start feeling symptoms, then (b) search for information, then (c) get sicker and go to the doctor, where (d) it's reported, which ends up being a couple weeks later.
I'm a new believer in watching statisticians find new (and accurate) ways to use this information. I'll be interested to track the Google trends in my state and see if they are correct!
November 14, 2008 - 9:57amThis Comment
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