What are the chances of becoming pregnant?

Thanks Diane! You saved the day again! This is very helpful information.

Hi, Rlyons! Thanks for your question!!

It sounds like you are actually in the best of all worlds. Using a natural method that makes you happy, using condoms for extra protection, and being OK with it if a pregnancy should occur. I'm applauding you for working through the birth-control maze to find a solution that works for you.

Because you're using condoms or abstinence on days that you are ovulating, your biggest risk is that of having sex before ovulation and having some sperm survive long enough to fertilize the egg when it appears. The fact that you have a very regular cycle helps you a lot here.

Here are some contraceptive failure rates for your methods:

No method at all: 85% chance of pregnancy in a year
Male condoms with perfect use: 2% chance
Male condoms with actual use: 13% chance
Calendar method (rhythm) with perfect use: 5% chance
Calendar method with actual use: 13%-20% chance

You're actually doubling up on two methods that have failure rates of 13% and 13%-20%. I'm certainly no mathematician, but I'd have to guess that that puts your possible rate of pregnancy within a year at below 10%.

You might be interested in this page on natural fertility awareness. It divides a woman's cycle into the following stages: Menstruation, Dry Days (right after menstruation, about days 6-11), Fertile Period (about days 12-18) and Infertile Period (about days 19-until menstruation). Of course the days would change somewhat depending on the length of a woman's cycle, but it's yet another way to help use natural methods to help prevent an unexpected pregnancy:

http://www.contracept.org/natural.php

That same page also gives this information:

Chances of Pregnancy by Day of Intercourse
(with day zero being the day you ovulate)

5 days before ovulation: 0%
4 days before ovulation: 11%
3 days before ovulation: 15%
2 days before ovulation: 20%
1 day before ovulation: 26%
0 days (ovulation) 15%
1 day after ovulation: 9%
2 days after ovulation: 5%
3 days after ovulation: 0%

I hope this information helps!

Any thoughts? Thanks.