how unlikely is it? I know its really low around 5% less

Me and my Gf had sex on january 4 and let her take the pill on january 6 7 am and then the 2nd dose 7pm( nordette 4 pill per dose) her last mens is dec 28 means we had sex on her 8th cycle and on night on january 9 shes started to have breast tenderness and on morning at january 10 she notice she have a EWCM( cervical mucus) means shes either near ovulation or ovulating I have read that your Ovulation start the last time you see you EWCM normally it occurs 1 day or more before your Ovulation day start..

Means were 6 days away from her ovulation and 7 days if you include the suspected ovulation day
and if shes not ovulating that day and just nearing ovulation means we have a lower chance of pregnancy
and I didnt ejaculate inside her I use withdrawal method and I know its stupid but I didnt ejaculated inside her I had to use my hands but still not sure if its safe thats why I let her take nordette (morning after pill) because I might let a drop slip and Ive read that sperm can live for up to 5 days if you had a perfect condition(fertile CM, strong sperm,and a lot of sperm count, and so on) most typically they just live for 2 to 3 days and if youre not on fertile window meaning no fertile mucus they live shorter than that
so lets say I did let a slip of drop given how the sperm count is low they wouldnt last for 5 days( i think itll be just 2 days at most)
so I wanna hear some opinion of some one who knows a lot
and I Know that the chances are so slim but can you give the odds?
if my research is correct you have a 5% below if you had sex 5 days before the ovulation and 0% 6 or more

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