I just found out about this, and thought it was interesting!
Most of us know that the CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) is "THE" place to go to for statistics on diseases, namely, the flu.
Did you know that online searching, such as using Google, may also provide as good, or better, stats? I don't think I would base my thesis or dissertation on these statistics, but for the general population, it can be one more piece of the puzzle to consider.
Google states that, "we have found a close relationship between how many people search for flu-related topics and how many people actually have flu symptoms." They provide very compelling explanations and data to substantiate their claims that Google can actually PREDICT the flu trend before the CDC!
You can see for yourself: the blue line is "Google search" and the yellow line is "CDC data":
http://www.google.org/about/flutrends/how.html
This is interesting to me, as we've been taught to go to the original source for information (professional journal articles and peer reviewed research, for instance). We are taught NOT to use generic search engines (such as Google) to provide us with credible, reliable information. Google provides links based on our keyword search, and it is up to the consumer to determine what is credible information, and what is hokey.
Maybe the tide is turning, and some technology wizards are actually using the internet to compile statistics and provide us with credible health information, stats, data and trends. What do you think?
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All I can say, is Wow!
I went to look with a lot of skepticism, knowing that lots of things could make a search engine "spike" on any given day, and that while Google's statistics would certainly be interesting, that I doubt I'd trust them for anything substantial in reporting.
But when I look at the ups and downs of the Google trend lines as compared with the ups and downs of the CDC trend lines, I'm flabbergasted. They match almost exactly, month after month, whether it's spiking upward or falling. That's amazing to me.
It makes some sense. The CDC numbers rely, in part, on doctors reporting patients in their offices who have a flu-like illness. The Google number rely on people searching for flu symptoms. It would follow that (a) people start feeling symptoms, then (b) search for information, then (c) get sicker and go to the doctor, where (d) it's reported, which ends up being a couple weeks later.
I'm a new believer in watching statisticians find new (and accurate) ways to use this information. I'll be interested to track the Google trends in my state and see if they are correct!
November 14, 2008 - 9:57amThis Comment